SCHIMBĂRI ALE RADIAŢIEI GLOBALE ÎN CONTEXTUL SCHIMBĂRILOR CLIMATICE ÎN PARTEA NORD-VESTICĂ A ROMÂNIEI
Bartók Blanka, Imecs Zoltán
ABSTRACT. - Changes in global radiation regarding climate change in northwestern part of Romania. The aim of the study is to estimate regional changes of global radiation regarding climate change in northwestern part of Romania. In the first step the dependence of global radiation from cloudiness is calculated by linear regression. As the second step a statistical method of downscaling is applied to calculate how cloudiness changes parallel with the increase of hemispherical temperature with 0.5K: the regression of local variables against the hemispherical mean temperature is analyzed by the method of instrumental variables, in the recent monotonously warming period of 1973-1996. Finally the products of the two regression coefficients typically yield a few percent of relative positive changes in global radiation considering 0.5 K hemispherical warming. The effect of different types of clouds on global radiation is also analyzed by parameterization. The results show a decrease in global radiation induced mostly by changes in Cirrus, Nimbostratus having the less influences on incoming solar radiation.
Keywords: global radiation, cloudiness, climate change
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