GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE:
NEW EVIDENCES BETWEEN TWO IPCC REPORTS
JÁNOS MIKA
ABSTRACT. – Even the economical crisis was not strong enough
to deflect the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing for more than one year. It
tends to develop at the upper edge of the IPCC (2007) projection band of
uncertainties. The part of the emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the
atmosphere is increasing due to weakening of both the biospheric- and the
oceanic sinks of this greenhouse-gas. The new radiation balance estimations must
admit the imbalance between the atmosphere and the oceans indicating the fact
that the greenhouse warming definitely takes place. The year 2010 became most
likely the warmest one on the global temperature record. The sea-level rise also
follows the most rapid track among the foreseen scenarios. In the meantime
modelling effort to better estimate regional features of the changes also
develop in their full strength. The ENSEMBLES Project ended in December 2009 and
published a lot of maps with 25 km model resolution. These results, however, do
not show convergence in the estimations for many regions, including Central
Europe, either.
Keywords: carbon-dioxide, radiation balance, sea-level, regional climate models