WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES IN LIGHT OF THE IPCC SREX (2011) AND BEYOND
JÁNOS MIKA
ABSTRACT. Weather and climate extremes in light of the IPCC SREX (2011) and beyond. The recent IPCC Special Report (IPCC SREX, 2011) provides a comprehensive overview of meteorological (i.e. weather and climate) extremes and their various aspects. The present paper reflects the core concepts of the Report, clarifying the relations of the natural and anthropogenic factors causing meteorological extremes, as well, as condition determining the risks and general ways of response by the society. The paper can only add some recent statistics to this scheme on various aspects of meteorological and non-meteorological reasons of natural disasters. The paper argues, however, the still unclear definition of the extremes and their classification as weather and climate extremes. We also dedicate a sub-Section to the statistical and physical considerations on how the extremes may change parallel to the global warming. Another sub-Section refers to further difficulties that hamper the empirical establishment of the trends in the meteorological extremes. Finally we overview the IPCC AR4 (2007) conclusions on some meteorological extremes, since the detailed Chapters of the IPCC SREX (2011) Report were not available by the time of writing the paper, but from its SPM no difference in the statements and even its uncertainties can be established since the AR4.
Keywords: weather extreme, climate extreme, natural disaster, climate change.